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Hanoi will move cautiously and such access may be limited to the purposes of logistical support for the time being. Vietnam's coastline bordering the South China Sea is over 3,000 kilometers long. Chinas rising military power and political influence is generating anxiety and suspicion among some of its neighbours and western powers. Few in Washington were inclined to see the South China Sea as a strategic priority engaging vital U.S. national interests. Historically, Taiwan's pivotal location off the China coast and between Northeast and Southeast Asia has served a variety of strategic purposes for regional powers, both offensive and defensive. Many of these countries suffer from corruption and lack for effective rule of law. During the George W. Bush administration, U.S. forces in the Philippines were focused primarily on aiding the Philippine military in its counterterror fight. Because of its location, this sea is extremely strategic because it connects the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Strait of Malacca). From the report. China has shown the most considerable increase in projection of power from all the states surrounding the SCS. That should, of course, remain the goal, but Washington must recognize that Thailand is in the midst of a decade-long political crisis, which is unlikely to be resolved until after King Bhumibols passing and the royal succession is completed. With a new Southeast Asian strategic alignment taking shape as described, geography makes Indonesia and Malaysiaespecially due to its Sabah and Sarawak states on Borneothe regions key swing states. It remains entirely plausible that any Chinese strategy could have a long term goal of possessing the power to deny US or western warships access to the SCS, with China largely laying claim to most of the area as it's own waters. Australia, for its part, has vocally supported U.S. freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea and may have quietly conducted its own in recent months. The Tribunal rejects Chinas maritime claims that go beyond the entitlements set out in the Law of the Sea Convention. The South China Sea (SCS) has great strategic and economic significance in the contemporary international politico-security environment. This article examines Chinas behaviour in the South China Sea disputes through the lens of its strategy for managing its claims. In sum, the South China Sea is the immediate arena where two alternative geopolitical paradigms are contesting for supremacy. The 2022 Philippine Election: Trouble for Democracy and Foreign Relations Ahead? That included nearly 40 percent of Chinas total trade and 90 percent of petroleum imports by China, Japan, and South Korea and nearly 6 percent of total U.S. trade. Sign up to receive ShareAmerica updates. Networking Social Entrepreneurship in Southeast Asia: Young Southeast Asian Leaders Initiative (YSEALI) program, The High Price of Neglecting Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy, Environmental Change and Security Program, North Korea International Documentation Project, Nuclear Proliferation International History Project, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, The Middle East and North Africa Workforce Development Initiative, Science and Technology Innovation Program, Wahba Institute for Strategic Competition. U.S. leaders should not be afraid of tension in the U.S.-China relationship. Access to all three is now in doubt. A U.S. Navy crewman aboard a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft views a computer screen purportedly showing Chinese construction on the reclaimed land of Fiery Cross Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in this still image from video provided by the United States Navy May 21, 2015. In April, Australian Defence Force personnel joined the U.S.-Philippines Balikatan maneuvers, which included an amphibious landing exercise. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), it carries one-third of global shipping, carrying trillions of dollars in trade, making it a significant geopolitical water body. First, the United States should feel more confident to pressure the junta on human rights concerns. Those bases may be vulnerable, but before and at the outbreak of hostilities, they will allow China to project power deep into maritime Southeast Asia, to threaten commercial and military passage through the sea, and to impose and enforce an air defense identification zone. In recent years, U.S. military planners have shifted their focus from counterterrorism, low intensity conflict to great power, high intensity threats. by M A Hossain 3 March 2023 The geostrategic significance of Bangladesh derives from its strategic location at the crossroads of South and Southeast Asia, endowing it with a pivotal role in the re The South China Sea is one of the most important trade pathways in the world. The USSJohn C. Stennistied up there for a few days in April. A South China Sea Strategy By Dan Blumenthal, Michael Auslin, and Michael Mazza I. Beware China: America Fights Back In recent years, China's inventive engineering feats have allowed it to. Talks are focused on articles that are relevant to disaster relief, but the agreements eventual parameters could expand as the U.S.-Vietnam security relationship matures. April 26, 2016 There is widespread interest in the rising tensions over the waters east of China. The South China Sea is one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. Washington (United States of America), February 27 (ANI): A Chinese J-11 fighter jet armed with air-to-air missiles intercepted the US Navy reconnaissance jet over the South China Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported. In 1974, Chinese gunboats attacked and defeated a small South Vietnamese military outpost in the Paracels an archipelago of reefs, atolls, and islets in the South China Sea. Other claimant states welcome U.S. involvement precisely because Washington does not favor one claimants territorial ambitions over those of the others. By contrast, China views. the South China Sea that would be " - S " ["permitting a leaf to obscure one's view of the mountain"]. To this end, the new administration should perform an early, top-down, and thorough strategic review to enable greater consistency and effectiveness in U.S. South China Sea policy. Now, the two militaries will increasingly exercise and train across a broad spectrum of military operations, from the low end to the high. And thus a new strategic map of Asia begins to emerge. The three core areas that must be defended and secured are the Malay Peninsula, Sabah and Sarawak. access to Thailands military facilities, particularly the strategically located and well-equipped Utapao airbase, is considered invaluable. 2023 Center for Strategic & International Studies. It is the geostrategic importance that is usually the main reason for the parties to strengthen their claim over the Spratlys and the Paracels. Abstract. Figure 4 shows the overlapping sovereignty claims in the SCS, with Chinas claims according to the 9 dash line doctrine in red. The China - Solomon Islands security agreement and the competition in the South China Sea. For example, the Spratly Islands are claimed in entirety by China, Taiwan and Vietnam and in part by Brunei, the Philippines and Malaysia; each except Brunei occupies some of the islands. This segment will address American interests. We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. The message will be clear; the era of American international leadership and predominance is over and a new preeminent power has taken its place. In the past two weeks, Filipino . Such pressure should focus on concrete, near-term objectives, such as putting a stop to reeducation of regime critics. Under President Xi Jinping, Beijing has undertaken more assertive policies that have greatly improved Beijings position in the South China Sea. Giving ground on vital interests in Asia will not encourage greater cooperation on global issues. This order embodies certain foundational political principles respect for international law, preservation of the real sovereign independence of regional states, a refusal to legitimate unilateral territorial expansion, and the unconditional acceptance of the sea-lanes as a global commons. and Amy Searight. As sovereignty over the SCS involves Chinas economic, energy and national security interests it is highly likely that the increased projection of maritime power will continue. "First, South China Sea is important for the strategic patrol of Chinese SSBN [nuclear ballistic missile submarine], which needs to enter west Pacific Ocean for its nuclear . China is undertaking a persistent, long-term effort to establish control over the South China Sea. The United States has been less successful in supporting local partners as they resist Chinese coercion. Less sexy but no less important is a forthcoming arrangement by which Vietnam will allow the United States military to preposition supplies and equipment in Da Nang on the central coast. China, Russia and the Munich Security Conference. The South China Sea is a core interest of both Vietnam and China. In particular, Thailand has a much more benign outlook on Chinas rise and on its activities in the South China Sea, and although suggestions that Bangkok would dump Washington for Beijing are certainly overstated, Thai elites are hesitant to be drawn into what they see as a U.S. effort to contain the kingdoms largest trade partner. Southeast Asians do not want to and should not have to choose between the two, but Chinese behavior is moving some states to pick sidesor at least to lean in one direction or another. Importantly, the Air Forces presence on Luzon, perhaps to be followed by regular naval rotations in Subic Bay, will put the United States in a better position to quickly seal up the Luzon Strait, which links the South China Sea to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean. Whomever is elected to be the next American president, that person would be wise to have in place a Plan B should the TPP fail to pass the Senate this year (such a Plan B is admittedly unlikely, given that both major candidates would bear responsibility for its failure in the first place). Allied efforts to support U.S. force posture in the region will remain vital, but the United States should also expect allies to make greater contributions in responding to Chinese coercion. 2016 The Arbitration Tribunal rules in favor of the Philippines. Not only Vietnam is the strongest opponent of the Chinese nine-dash line claim in the region, Vietnam's sustained economic growth has pushed it to emerge as an important player in the South East Asia, which China perceives is not in its interests. The South China Sea (SCS) consists of over 200 tiny islands, reefs, shoals, atolls and sandbanks grouped in to 3 archipelagos the Spratlys, the Paracels and the Pratas Macclesfield Bank and Scarborough Shoal. Ownership claims to them are used to bolster claims to the surrounding sea and its resources. Any temptation to alter U.S. policies in the South China Sea to preserve cooperation with China in other areas is unnecessary and potentially counterproductive. Post-Mao China, with the emergence of Deng Xiaoping as paramount leader, became a major constructive presence dedicated to economic development fueled by opening the Middle Kingdom to the region and the world. Enduring U.S. interestsfreedom of navigation and overflight, support for the rules-based international order, and the peaceful resolution of disputesare at risk in the region. Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs. Therefore, the US plays a key role in influencing the resolution of the SCS disputes. These factors combined give a strategic importance to the South China Sea that has led to numerous states Brunei, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam each pressing their own claims to . U.S. Navy/Handout[/caption]. What is the strategic importance of the South China Sea. The isolationist China has never traditionally had a deep water navy, with a significant power projection capability; however the production of its first aircraft carrier (Liaoning) has been a noteworthy change from a soft power in the land environment to a hard power projection at sea stance. It is growing more difficult to discuss Southeast Asia without discussing Japan, India and Australia, whose ties to the region and to each other are maturing and whose militarieswhether represented by personnel, aircraft, or warshipsare increasingly present in the region. February 27, 2023. According to the U.S. State Department, it has been estimated that China is effectively blocking the development of $2.5 trillion worth of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea. The Art of War helps expose the motivation behind past, current, and future Chinese actions. Vietnam already flies modern Russian fighter jets and is expecting delivery this year of its sixth and final Kilo-class submarinesubmarines so quiet that the U.S. Navy refers to them as black holes. If the Chinese Navy wants to have its way in the South China Sea, it will have to dedicate resources to tracking those subs, a task with which the PLAN has limited experience. It has increased its military budget by over 8.5% in recent years and this is likely to continue for the near future. That line was given little credence or attention in the U.S. or in Asia over the first five decades of the PRCs history. The South China Sea is one such essential waterway, made more important by the value of the sea's fisheries and subsea resources such as natural gas. But if China continues to play its cards wrong and if the United States proves itself a dependable partner, American warships could one day regularly operate out of Cam Ranh Bay, the strategically located port-of-call, for the first time since the Vietnam War. Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Thursday, Bonji Ohara, a senior fellow at the Tokyo-based Sasakawa Peace Foundation, said the marginal sea is key to China's security. Generally, oil and minerals move north, and food and manufactured goods move south. Importantly, American access to four airbases (with potentially more to be made available at a later date)especially those on Luzon and Palawanwill make U.S. air power resident in Southeast Asia. All Rights Reserved, Japans Emerging Role as the Worlds Consensus Builder, Balancing Acts in U.S. Southeast Asia Policy, Pakistans Foreign Policy Priorities: A Conversation with Foreign Minister by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Indias Economic Ambitions in the Pharmaceutical Industry, Paving the Path to Soft Power: Crucial Moments in South Koreas Cultural Policies, Afghanistan: The United States Must Stay Engaged. China has shown it is willing to accept substantial risk to achieve its ends, and has engaged in outright coercion against weaker neighbors like the Philippines and Vietnam. through South China Sea Port is 1400 kms long. The most likely single scenario for a major military engagement against a great power adversary would be one against China centered on the South China Sea. The longstanding U.S. position that it takes no position on sovereignty disputes over land features in the South China Sea, while insisting that these disputes be resolved in a peaceful fashion and in accordance with international law, is sound and should be maintained. Currently, President Xi Jinping makes frequent references to Chinas possession of the South China Sea since ancient times an assertion that lacks any validity historically or legally. It is little surprise, then, that Southeast Asian states are drawing closer to the United Statesboth seeking aid in developing their own defense capabilities and hoping that stronger ties act as a deterrent to Chinese assertiveness. in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important trade routes in the world. China perceives Vietnam as an obstacle for acquiring its control over this strategic sea. Notably, the paper identified Malaysia's maritime claims in the South China Sea as its top security concern. The Strategic Importance of the South China Sea. Most of China's global trade is seaborne. The result has been to heighten tensions and allow Chinese forces to more easily project military power across the region. TheSouth China Seais one of the most important economic and environmental regions in the world. President Musharraf requested China to invest in this important strategic chokepoint in the Indian Ocean., to which China agreed. The strategic importance of the South China Sea is mainly due to its geographical location as the area is one of world's busiest and most strategic shipping lanes. The region also is the subject of more than a dozen overlapping and interconnected disputes over who is in charge of the various islands, rocks, shoals and reefs scattered throughout the South China Sea waters. She also observed that the sea-lanes through the South China Sea constituted a global commons not subject to sovereign claims by any nation. The United States can stand firm on its principles and deter China from undermining the regional order while maintaining a productive relationship. A critical and early Chinese test of U.S. resolve is likely to come in the South China Sea, where Washington has struggled to respond effectively to assertive Chinese behavior. Even then, the countrys division between royalists and red-shirts will likely endure. Given these advantages, Washington can afford to focus on the long game in Asia, confident that Chinese adventurism is likely to push many states to turn to the United States for support. Select Accept to consent or Reject to decline non-essential cookies for this use. It can receive large aircraft (including C-17s and C-130s); it is close to a deep seaport; and it has infrastructure capable of handling command and control systems. The Obama administration has made modest gains in this regard, but it will be up for to the next president to seize that opportunity and ensure that Southeast Asias future is prosperous, peaceful and free. The Balloon Incident and Evolution of Espionage. China has tried to effectively annex the whole South China Sea region as its territorial waters, according to Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The strategic landscape of the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia in the early 1990s was remarkably benign with optimism in full flower. Strategic. U.S. access to the military facilities on the South China Seas southern flank, however, would shift the regions balance of power in Americas favor. This puts more pressure on Washington to intervene and U.S. allies and partners in Asia are watching carefully and drawing conclusions about U.S. commitment and staying power in the region. China has become increasingly assertive in the region, and regional powers from Japan to Singapore have become alarmed at China's behavior. Center for Strategic and International Studies That grouping came under Chinese control an event that went almost entirely unnoticed in the wider world as the drama marking the end of the Vietnam War played out. In a first, a Modi-Obamajoint statementlast year explicitly raised concerns over the South China Sea and called on all parties to avoid the threat or use of force and pursue resolution of territorial and maritime disputes through all peaceful means.. It is highly likely that China will continue to upset regional stability in the SCS to expand its own sphere of influence. LinkedIn and 3rd parties use essential and non-essential cookies to provide, secure, analyze and improve our Services, and to show you relevant ads (including professional and job ads) on and off LinkedIn. If Chinese coercion goes unchallenged by the United States, it will send a dangerous signal about the strength of the U.S. alliance system and lessen the appeal of the United States as a security partner. - Interview with Mei Gechlik, Pelosi's visit to Taiwan Spiking Tensions Between the U.S. and China: an interview with Andrew K.P. Beijings moves have prompted Washington to counter Chinese assertiveness by forging a new strategic alignment in the regionone in which China dominates the South China Sea from the north, the United States and its partners do so from the east and west, and the states of continental Southeast Asia remain neutral or lean toward Beijing in the intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition. or join us on Facebook. The refusal, likely prompted by Beijing, might seem to be just another way for China to put pressure on Taiwan, which it has long regarded as a renegade province. In each of these arenas, a successful Chinese effort to seize control of the South China Sea will have a profound impact and each is worth elaboration. The United States has been largely successful at preserving its own freedom of action and deterring outright Chinese aggression in the South China Sea through routine presence operations. director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative at Peking . economic importance associated with the ocean is tremendous and manifold. The same cannot be said for China and a maritime Southeast Asia that aligns with the United States. A new arrangement for U.S. naval access to Cam Ranh Bay may well be in the offing. In 1989 troops from the Peoples Liberation Army entered Tiananmen Square and terminated the student-led democracy demonstrations and hundreds died. Islands in the South China Sea The islands of the South China Sea can be grouped into two island chains. The global focus of economic power has traditionally been centred over the west with the UK and the USA as the key contributors; however in recent years, this has shifted east (see Figure 1), with the main reason for this being rapid urbanization in developing countries, in particular China. This button displays the currently selected search type. The diplomatic tempest at the ARF came when U.S. security attention was preoccupied with ongoing military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as the global counterterrorism campaign with Osama bin Laden still at large. Brunei's statement seems to present a unified front with the Philippines and Vietnam, in preparation for its ASEAN chairmanship in 2021, where ASEAN and China hope to finalise the formulation of the code of conduct to reduce tensions in the South China Sea. The U.S. US still mired in a 'Cold War' mindset, but the tide's turning, The West is misreading Chinas Party Congress at the peril of world stability, Can Foreign Investors still have Good Reasons to be Optimistic about China? In short, adopting a more robust deterrence approach need not prevent cooperation that is in the interests of both countries. Media Relations Manager, External Relations. WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump and his Vietnamese counterpart Nguyen Xuan Phuc said the disputed South China Sea has a strategic significance for the international community and any "unlawful" restriction on the freedom of the seas will destabilise peace in the Asia-Pacific region. Seventh Fleet transits regularly between the Pacific and Indian Oceans (including the Bay of Bengal). In recent years, Chinas inventive engineering feats have allowed it to create more than 3,200 acres of new land in the South China Sea. Countering Chinas efforts has become a key test of perceived U.S. commitment to many in the region. To understand the statement we have to have a particular knowledge over the issue and have to look over the geopolitical and strategic importance of South China Sea. The third will assess the policies/strategies currently employed by the United States in this arena as well as other plausible options. Despite all that, Beijing now faces a competition with Washington (and Delhi and Tokyo) for influence in Naypyidaw. The South China Sea has become important to the US because of China's challenge to the liberal rules-based order that America has promoted since the Pacific war. 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China tries to control the waters by using fishing vessels that are part of the Chinese maritime militia, coast guard ships, and naval vessels to harass other countries boats and deny access to this key area. 2014 The United States and the Philippines sign an enhanced defense pact, strengthening the U.S.-Filipino relationship. But the new maps contours truly began to crystallize earlier this year, when the Philippines Supreme Court ruled as constitutional a new defense agreement with the United States. In practice, Thailand may be neutral in the regions great power fissures into the next decade. More than half of the world's fishing vessels are in the South China Sea, and millions of people depend on these waters for their food and livelihoods. f) . Almost all the East Asian countries are dependent on this sea. Countries across the region prioritized economic growth and modernization. In the near term, this could lead to sales of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance equipment as well as patrol boats to allow Hanoi to better keep an eye on goings-on in the western South China Sea. Chinas military modernization has included structural reforms establishing a Joint Operations Command and five new theatre commands (Northern, Eastern, Southern, Western and Central). As . The two countries elevated bilateral ties to an extensive strategic partnership in 2013 and Japan is in the midst of donating to Vietnam six patrol vessels (for use by the coast guard and fisheries ministry). But the South China Sea has been dangerously overfished. More importantly, it also covers the most crucial energy routes for East Asian countries to transport oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. It is a rich source of hydrocarbons and natural resources. The neighboring South East Asian countries of the highly volatile and busiest waterways of the South China Sea (SCS) have overlapping claims of sovereignty. This new strategic map of Southeast Asia actually began to take shape during the Bush administration, whichinitially launchedthe effort to move beyond Americas traditional hub-and-spokes alliance model in the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. military used Utapao for refueling efforts during operations in Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s, as well as for multinational relief efforts after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and April 2015 Nepal earthquake., The U.S.-Thai alliance has also served as a platform for important training exercises. The islands are important, however, for strategic and political reasons. If China can exert complete control over the region, using predominantly the maritime domain, it can build a significant strategic sphere of influence and power. As the new administration sets out to revamp U.S. strategy in the South China Sea, it should keep the following guidelines in mind: Although Chinese cooperation is necessary to address some regional and global issuessuch as North Koreas belligerent behavior and climate changethe United States should not be held hostage by concerns that a more robust deterrence strategy will thwart bilateral cooperation. Follow the Asia Program on Twitter @AsiaProgram. - Interview with Ana Krstinovska, Russia's Growing Influence in the Middle East: an interview with Alexander Hoffmann, Serbia's Uneasy Balance Between Moscow and the EU: an interview with Suzana Grubjesic, Gulf States' Economic Momentum: an interview with Omar Al-Ubaydli, Prospects for Turkey-EU Relations Amid Tensions, Need to Cooperate and Lack of Trust: an interview with Nilgn Arsan Eralp, Germany's Shifting Stance in the Greek-Turkish Dispute: an interview with Ioannis P. 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In other words, his primary concern is that the rivalry over the South China Sea could derail Beijing's strong strategic focus on the Taiwan issue.25 Academic perspectives on the South China Sea are important and may actually be quite influential. Chinese missiles on the mainland already hold all U.S. Asian bases at risk.